Sunni Shia relations 201007

No free handshake

Scepticism is still high on the prospects of the Palestinian- Israeli peace meeting proposed by US President George W Bush in July and expected to convene in Annapolis, Maryland, before the year's end.

American, Egyptian and Arab diplomats, speaking on and off the record, had no coherent rationale to offer on why anybody should think that the upcoming meeting will prove "more than just a photo opportunity", as US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has repeatedly promised this week during a regional tour that took her to Israel, the Palestinian territories, Egypt and Jordan.

During her visit, Rice tried to get both the Israelis (with little US pressure) and the Palestinians (with considerable US pressure and much Arab support) to agree to a document that they would take to the autumn meeting for debate. This document should offer a basis for the launch of final status talks between the conflicting sides. Especially because it's viewed as a supposed prelude to a more comprehensive peace deal ending the Arab-Israeli struggle.

Arriving to the region early in the week, Rice was determined to keep expectations down. In Egypt Tuesday on the third day of her present tour, the US secretary of state was holding to her position. In Cairo, Rice held over five hours of talks, including a 90-minute with President Hosni Mubarak, a joint meeting with her Egyptian counterpart Ahmed Abul-Gheit and General Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman and a customary encounter with Arab League head Amr Moussa. The outcome of the day's diplomacy was qualified as "encouraging" at best.

"This American administration is saying that it is serious about achieving the mission, and I cannot doubt what they are telling me. I have to believe them," Foreign Minister Abul- Gheit cryptically told a joint press conference with Rice Tuesday afternoon. Following his talks, Moussa said that he heard some "reassuring statements". He added that he still needed to see a more positive Israeli engagement, especially in relation to a moratorium on building Israeli settlements on Palestinian territories. He also demanded more concrete US and Israeli diplomatic commitments.

"If properly used, the next few weeks could be sufficient to address the pending issues. However, if wasted in inconclusive talks then the next few weeks would not suffice to pave the way towards a successful conference," Moussa said. Rice argued that, "there are still two months" before year's end to prepare the ground for the meeting.

The core preparatory process relates to a joint Palestinian-Israeli document covering the "core issues" of negotiations, incorporating relevant terms of reference, and setting a loose timeline for reaching conclusion on the Palestinian- Israeli track. "We do not want a timeframe set in stone, but we want to say that we are talking about six months, nine months or a year for the negotiations to be completed," Abul-Gheit said.

This is not proving easy for the Americans to wrest from the Israelis. Nor has it proven to be easy to get Israel to suspend its settlement activities that eat up Palestinian territories supposedly reserved for a would-be independent and viable Palestinian state. Especially hard to deliver are agreed terms of reference that both Palestinians and Israelis accept to include in a joint document on "core issues" -- particularly regarding the fate of five million Palestinian refugees.

Speaking on background, Arab and Western diplomats close to the negotiations say that not even 50 per cent of the document in question has been agreed. By the time Rice leaves the region, they say, not much progress will have been achieved, even if Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas reduces the ceiling of his demands in order to accommodate Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Sources suggest that Rice encouraged Cairo and Amman to support Abbas in accepting "rather general" references in the proposed document regarding the fate of East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state and a vague indirect reference to the issue of refugees.

On the eve of her arrival to the region, Moussa reportedly cautioned Rice indirectly that Arabs would not offer Israel a free handshake, nor for that matter normalisation, in Annapolis. Meanwhile, Abul-Gheit suggested that the proposed peace meeting should be delayed if the preparatory process proves tough to conclude on time. In response, Rice argued, "it is hard to delay something that no date has been set for."

Neither Arab nor American diplomats are willing to talk about cancelling the meeting or even of reducing it to a more limited gathering than the currently envisaged regional-international congregation. However, these same diplomats are not willing to exclude those options. The option of moving the meeting to after the New Year is not completely excluded either -- even if viewed as a harsh defeat for American diplomacy. More importantly, the participation of all invited Arab parties does not seem to be taken for granted by the American side as it was earlier in the process, particularly in relation to Saudi Arabia.

American sources say that by the end of her trip Rice will decide on the prospects of this conference convening. They add that if she declares or at least plans another trip to the region next month, then that would indicate the meeting is on before the year's end. If not, question marks would arise.

"We will give a chance for the next few weeks. We are consulting closely with the Palestinians as they draft the document for the meeting, but we will not go into the trap of an open-ended process," Moussa said Tuesday. The Arab League chief added that if basic Arab stipulations for this conference are not met, "then we would get into another phase that would require a high-level Arab decision."

Arab foreign ministers are expected to meet next month to debate the prospects of the peace meeting and how to make it a launching pad for a solid and comprehensive process to settle the Arab-Israeli conflict on all tracks. Yesterday, at the headquarters of the Arab League, permanent representatives of Arab countries met to consider preparations for that meeting and to compare and contrast Israeli actions on the ground with promises made by Rice to Arab officials this week.

Source: Al Ahram