Sunday Analysis 211007

Even if Syria remains this week one of the main element in the news of the region, Turkey started moving in such an unprecedented way that it seems to destabilize most of its allies, if they did not before what was about to be done, of course.

Israel’s raid into Syria raised a lot of questions once again, six weeks after it occurred. We have learned that, according to Western sources, it was directed at a partly constructed nuclear site. IAEA has been asking Syria about this site, but got no answer yet as far as open sources have been revealing. Thus, Syria has been officially explaining that such a site never existed in its territory, and that it was in fact an unused military facility. But many questions are still raised in this issue. Why did a Northern Korea delegation visit Syria last week? They did it officially to improve relations betweens both countries in various fields, but it could be more seen as an informal visit to deal with the current crisis. Syria is now said to be dismantling the site, which could make it more difficult for IAEA inspectors in case of an inspection of the site… Another problem still remains unsolved, why neither Israel nor United States did transfer the evidences they are talking about to the IAEA? Pictures were said to be in possession of both countries, taken by an Israeli “mole”, but those pictures were not transferred yet, and the Agency has to work with commercial pictures, which is quite a big problem for analysing. So we can not really now, with all those unsolved questions, who is really saying the truth. But it would be easier to say that in this case, both sides are not revealing what really happened, we can just hope that next week will bring more information.

Turkey has been the second key actor in this week moves in the region. Oil prices have been rising because of the rumours of intervention into Iraq, and got worst when Turkey really crossed the border. As if the Sunni Shia tension in the region was not enough, we now have to add the Kurdistan problem in the deal, with an involvement in the region that could be increasing in the coming weeks. And the raise of oil prices, coming along with the rise of tensions, led some analysts to lobby for an intervention into Saudi Arabia eastern region, in order for the West to get a direct access and to control oilfields, and oil production. We can only hope those people will not be heard in Washington.

Meanwhile, Europe involvement into Middle Eastern diplomacy led to a few reactions this week. Egypt was unpleased with U.E. new stance not to support as openly as they used to do before a Middle East zone free of weapons of mass destruction. Meanwhile U.S. keep on saying that E.U. shall follow the American stance and push for more sanctions while pressuring its companies in order not to invest in Iran.