Sunday analysis 141007

One the most important topic in the news this week is still the same, which is easy to understand according to its importance: Israel’s raid into Syria.

We could see different stances, coming from different countries:

According to U.S. sources, it was proved that North Korea scientists were frequently visiting a site in the desert, and it is also proved that North Korea has helped Damascus in developing its ballistic missile technology. But it is not sure Syria had developed a program that could threaten the whole region. Some sources even speak about an airbust capacity for its missiles, developed jointly with North Korea. But not all the sources agree on the nuclear theory, far from it.

A few U.S. sources do speak about the nuclear threat, most of them close to the U.S. government, or close to Bolton. And the same sources asked for a U.S. intervention against Syria.

Officially, North Korea is denying any implication in any program developed jointly with Syria.

After first explaining that Israel’s raid was not able to invade its territory, Syria said that Israeli jets hit an empty military warehouse.

Israel has been silent about the raid; some sources have been nevertheless speaking unofficially about a raid against a nuclear facility.

Turkey has been explaining that Israel destroyed long range SCUD C missiles ready to be fitted with non conventional warheads, 30 to 40 of them were destroyed.

So sources are diverging on this issue. Turkey’s theory sounds quite interesting. Even if it not proven to be the real one. But as North Korea is known for its missiles know how, and as it is quite strange for Syria to invest in a technology in which they are not really used to, nuclear capacity, we could reasonably think that Syria was trying to acquire long range capacity missiles, and to equip those missiles with unconventional warheads such as bacterial or chemicals devices. But in this case why would Israel launch an air raid into Syria, and risk a regional war, for something Syria has always been doing? Maybe because the context is different now from what it used to be a few years ago, and Israel can not afford to let its neighbors developing any new long range ability. Or maybe there was really a nuclear reactor, like the New York Times keeps on saying.

So Syria became one of the most important actors in the region crisis. Therefore, its presence at the Middle East conference to be held by the U.S. is important. Nothing is lost yet, and diplomacy can still solve those problems, but all the regional actors have to sit at the same table to share their point of view. Even if Syria, Jordan, Egypt or Saudi Arabia did not say yet they will attend the conference, they have to go there, to keep on speaking.

Relations still exist between Iran and Arab countries. Mostly through OPEC, as we could see last week with Iran’s decision to increase its daily output to 4 millions barrels, even if they were opposed to it. The regional electric grid interconnection is being developed as well, between Iran and Pakistan. So maybe energy needs are more important than political issues in the region, and oil and economy will solve the crisis. But only if other states stop interfering in the region.